What a Beautiful Release Point
Powerful, Driven, Matt Schaub is... Unstoppable. Like his citizen eco-drive... wait a minute Texans QBs don't get commercials like that. When a quarterback lacks big market appeal or the expectations that come with first round draft status, it becomes hard to put your finger on exactly how effective that QB actually is. Big name QBs get national media attention, and so do lesser guys who start for big market teams like the Giants or Cowboys. When it comes down to it, how do you compare a QB like Matt Schaub to someone like Dallas' Tony Romo? Neither are high draft picks, but Romo gets the attention and scrutiny that a Cowboys player deserves. To compound the problem, the Texans as a franchise have never even had a winning season or played in a playoff game. Is Matt Schaub Good, Bad or an In-Between? The sleazer is taking off the kid gloves and getting into the grit of an important yet ignored player in today's NFL.
The trade that got Matt Schaub his chance was strange in that while the Falcons got first round value for Schaub they never physically got an extra first round pick. As it went down, the Falcons received two 2nd rounders (in '07 and '08) and traded up two slots from 10 to 8 in the 2007 draft. All in all, the value is somewhere around a mid first rounder for Schaub, but the Texans attempted to save some face by not actually giving up the first rounder in case Schaub flopped. I'm not gonna go into the ins and outs of what the picks turned into since that's more of a trade/franchise evaluation than anything.
Trading what is essentially a first round draft pick for a semi-experienced former backup clearly represents a strong display of faith in a quarterback. When you use a draft pick on a QB, you generally have the luxury of providing him some years of instruction in your system. On the other hand, when you trade for a 25 year old QB with 150 in game attempts and two games started you have to be hoping for an out of the box product who will grow along with your team. Schaub's situation was hardly common in the NFL, especially considering he was probably the better passer on his former team. Then again, Mike Vick is anything but common.
Taking a look at Schaub's similarity score, a relative comparison to other qbs, at age 26:
(courtesy of profootballreference.com)
we can see that Schaub had potential that ranged from horrible (Tim Rattay, David Carr, Josh McCown) to average (Aikman, Brunell, Hasselbeck) to sublime (Joe Montana). These across the board scores are another indication of the risk/reward factor involved in the trade.
Not that there weren't flashes of talent from Schaub. In his 2005 game against the Patriots, Schaub was 18-34 for 298 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs. He hit on a number of deep balls against what was still a good NE defense, and he showed the ability to run the offense and avoid negative plays.
After the completely undeserved amount of faith placed in David Carr, the Houston Texans were desparate for a serviceable qb. In the end, what they got in the first two years from Schaub was inconsistency and injury. Schaub started 11 games each year in his first two years as full-time starter. When he played, his numbers were efficient if unspectacular. He clearly outclassed Carr in that he didn't take 5 sacks per game, but with playmakers on the offensive side like Andre Johnson (undoubtedly the most complete WR in the NFL), Owen Daniels and eventually Steve Slaton the Texans appeared to be an explosive offense on paper heading into 2009. Schaub had improved from '06 to '07 and '07 to '08 and another jump in production would be expected as the overall team talent improved.
The Texans also managed to bolster what was once an attrocious defense by spending high pick after high pick on front seven players like Amobi Okoye, Demeco Ryans, Mario Williams and most recently Brian Cushing. And it worked! So why hasn't this Texans team blossomed as most assumed it would this year?
It's not quite as simple as Matt Schaub case closed. The run game has struggled more than expected, but even as Schaub improved his numbers (he led the league in TD passes by week 10,) it was his untimely interceptions and inability to get the offense started early that led to a horrible 4 game losing streak by the Texans. All of the games were losses by 7 or less, and in each of them they either struggle in the 1st or 4th quarter. In fairness, the losses are to good teams. But also in fairness, you aren't a good QB if you score big against teams like Seattle and Buffalo. What you are is a good fantasy QB.
After a really mediocre performance yesterday against an equally mediocre St. Louis defense, Schaub continues to show us more of the same: he can hit Andre Johnson since he is almost always open, and his good stats (completion percentage, TD:INT ratio) hide the fact that he fails to convert important first downs and score touchdowns in the red zone.
At this point in the Texans' potential playoff arc, they are just entering their Superbowl window. The defense is young and flies all over the field. The receivers and offensive weapons are in place and in their primes. If Stump the Schaub is the hero Houston deserves, he needs to start showing it in these next two games; otherwise, it might be time for Houston to start exploring other QB options.
With the 2010 season potentially uncapped things could get crazy in a hurry, but to his credit Schaub has really only three full years as starter under his belt. I don't think it's unreasonable for the Texans to stick with Schaub and hope he continues to improve. For the Texans, even playing in a playoff game would be a huge step forward, but so long as you have the talent on the roster why not gamble with a QB change if it can put you over the top?
Nevertheless, I would prefer they don't roll the dice with the options currently on their roster, or options they have already explored for that matter:
I think when all is said and done, Schaub's best years will have overlapped while the team's overall talent was at its pinnacle. It's a good situation for Houston, but in the end Schaub might be cast as the goat who held a talented team back.
The trade that got Matt Schaub his chance was strange in that while the Falcons got first round value for Schaub they never physically got an extra first round pick. As it went down, the Falcons received two 2nd rounders (in '07 and '08) and traded up two slots from 10 to 8 in the 2007 draft. All in all, the value is somewhere around a mid first rounder for Schaub, but the Texans attempted to save some face by not actually giving up the first rounder in case Schaub flopped. I'm not gonna go into the ins and outs of what the picks turned into since that's more of a trade/franchise evaluation than anything.
Trading what is essentially a first round draft pick for a semi-experienced former backup clearly represents a strong display of faith in a quarterback. When you use a draft pick on a QB, you generally have the luxury of providing him some years of instruction in your system. On the other hand, when you trade for a 25 year old QB with 150 in game attempts and two games started you have to be hoping for an out of the box product who will grow along with your team. Schaub's situation was hardly common in the NFL, especially considering he was probably the better passer on his former team. Then again, Mike Vick is anything but common.
Taking a look at Schaub's similarity score, a relative comparison to other qbs, at age 26:
(courtesy of profootballreference.com)
we can see that Schaub had potential that ranged from horrible (Tim Rattay, David Carr, Josh McCown) to average (Aikman, Brunell, Hasselbeck) to sublime (Joe Montana). These across the board scores are another indication of the risk/reward factor involved in the trade.
Not that there weren't flashes of talent from Schaub. In his 2005 game against the Patriots, Schaub was 18-34 for 298 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs. He hit on a number of deep balls against what was still a good NE defense, and he showed the ability to run the offense and avoid negative plays.
After the completely undeserved amount of faith placed in David Carr, the Houston Texans were desparate for a serviceable qb. In the end, what they got in the first two years from Schaub was inconsistency and injury. Schaub started 11 games each year in his first two years as full-time starter. When he played, his numbers were efficient if unspectacular. He clearly outclassed Carr in that he didn't take 5 sacks per game, but with playmakers on the offensive side like Andre Johnson (undoubtedly the most complete WR in the NFL), Owen Daniels and eventually Steve Slaton the Texans appeared to be an explosive offense on paper heading into 2009. Schaub had improved from '06 to '07 and '07 to '08 and another jump in production would be expected as the overall team talent improved.
The Texans also managed to bolster what was once an attrocious defense by spending high pick after high pick on front seven players like Amobi Okoye, Demeco Ryans, Mario Williams and most recently Brian Cushing. And it worked! So why hasn't this Texans team blossomed as most assumed it would this year?
It's not quite as simple as Matt Schaub case closed. The run game has struggled more than expected, but even as Schaub improved his numbers (he led the league in TD passes by week 10,) it was his untimely interceptions and inability to get the offense started early that led to a horrible 4 game losing streak by the Texans. All of the games were losses by 7 or less, and in each of them they either struggle in the 1st or 4th quarter. In fairness, the losses are to good teams. But also in fairness, you aren't a good QB if you score big against teams like Seattle and Buffalo. What you are is a good fantasy QB.
After a really mediocre performance yesterday against an equally mediocre St. Louis defense, Schaub continues to show us more of the same: he can hit Andre Johnson since he is almost always open, and his good stats (completion percentage, TD:INT ratio) hide the fact that he fails to convert important first downs and score touchdowns in the red zone.
At this point in the Texans' potential playoff arc, they are just entering their Superbowl window. The defense is young and flies all over the field. The receivers and offensive weapons are in place and in their primes. If Stump the Schaub is the hero Houston deserves, he needs to start showing it in these next two games; otherwise, it might be time for Houston to start exploring other QB options.
With the 2010 season potentially uncapped things could get crazy in a hurry, but to his credit Schaub has really only three full years as starter under his belt. I don't think it's unreasonable for the Texans to stick with Schaub and hope he continues to improve. For the Texans, even playing in a playoff game would be a huge step forward, but so long as you have the talent on the roster why not gamble with a QB change if it can put you over the top?
Nevertheless, I would prefer they don't roll the dice with the options currently on their roster, or options they have already explored for that matter:
I think when all is said and done, Schaub's best years will have overlapped while the team's overall talent was at its pinnacle. It's a good situation for Houston, but in the end Schaub might be cast as the goat who held a talented team back.
That's probably the forth time that Rosencrantz video has graced this blog, and it still gets funnier with each viewing.
ReplyDeleteWhat role would you say the rotating cavalcade of rbs plays in the Texans' inconsistency. Slaton's foomblayitis has been well documented, but it certainly can't help matters that Cha Man Chris Brown, One Pump Chump Moats, and Areola Foster have all gotten good hard looks at being "The Guy".
I think that the overall inability of the running game to get off the ground is significant, but the backs were all adept pass catchers, and Slaton's screen pass to completion ability is unparalleled. When you're a team that passes to set up the run like the Packers or Eagles you need to torch players like the Colts' corners or you just don't have a good enough passing game.
ReplyDelete