Free at Last! Free at Last! Thank God, Almighty, We Are Free At Last!

As is well-recorded on this blog, I’ve gotten a lot of shit for not writing a post yet, which is generally deserved. For this reason, and the fact that I don’t want to lose the race for the last person to post to In Oden We Trust, I’ve finally gotten around to doin’ tha damn thing. Since I didn’t want to fuck up, I decided I should comment on something I know well. Since I regularly have commented on things of political nature and because you could get pretty much the same shit listening to homeless people ranting in Davis, I decided to go with my other favorite thing (pub trivia not withstanding): College Football.

Now that ESPN has compiled its top 25 pre-season rankings, I’ve decided to show where they are right and where they are totally, totally wrong, hopefully cutting through all the bullshit of punditry. However, ala LNW’s weekly Over/Unders, I’ve decided to give the rankings to you in installments. Live from the Starbucks in Davis, I give you your Top 25 Rankings:

#25 Florida State

This ranking seems about fair, considering its mostly ceremonial to be #25 anyways. Do I think Florida St. is actually going to make any sort of waves this year? Absolutely not. It’s been quite a while since the days of Charlie Ward flying all over the place. They’re one of those programs that manages to get continual respect for past glory despite mediocre production, though I’ll say that I’ll give ESPN the benefit of the doubt when they say their running game is legit this year (of course, it was when Lightning Leon was there a few years ago and they didn’t do shit). Prognosis: The coaches’ poll puts them lower, but I say ESPN got this one right.

#24 Brigham Young University

I can’t decide if BYU’s recruiting program is aided or crippled by the fact that it is a school solely made up of Mormons. On the one hand, there are a lot of Mormons out there (it’s the fastest growing religion in the world) and BYU basically gets the pick of the litter out of them. On the other hand, they’re all Mormons. One could argue they lack the cutting edge necessary to keep up with the big-boys. The Cougs are always a factor (and they are certainly a solid program), but I can’t help but picture Oklahoma’s speedy, strong linebacking corps dismembering Max Hall in their Sept. 5^th matchup. If Hall goes down, they’ll be out of the picture faster than you can say Tabernacle. Prognosis: #24 is fine for their pre-season, but I say they’re out of the top 25 pretty soon into the season.

#23 Utah

Much like Rodney Dangerfield, Utah gets no respect. This squad is continually underrated. I have to assume that the folks putting this poll together missed their anal-yzing of Alabama (ranked #8 in their poll). There seems to be some sort of communication breakdown between the guys doing their NCAA rankings and those doing the NFL Draft, because Ute products are generally well-regarded in NFL circles, even in the post-Urban Meyer era. They should be ranked well into the teens, but that’s just my opinion. Prognosis: #17. However, I should note I’m basing this off my guilt for completely ripping on them last year and being proven completely wrong in the ‘Bama game.

#22 Kansas

This is a tough one. Its difficult to judge how good Kansas actually is. On the one hand, Todd Reesing is around yet again to lead the fierce spread attack that had such success two years ago. However, he stalled out last year with the disappearance of a run game, limiting Reesing’s effectiveness. I think it’s also worth noting that the poor Jayhawks reside in the Big 12, which is home to some serious heavy hitters and, I might argue, is the most difficult conference in the nation right now. I know SEC fans might disagree, but as the rankings go on, you’ll see what I mean. Therefore, Kansas should savor this ranking, because unless they seriously overperform, this is the closest they are coming to sniffing the azz of success. Prognosis: I really am not sure what to make of this one. I’ll go with ESPN on this one, but that’s not to say they couldn’t get overtaken by some other random Big 12 programs.

#21 University of North Carolina

Really a fledgling program that has produced some strong prospects in the past (see: Orange Julius Peppers), I’m told by ESPN that Butch Davis is turning it into an annually strong squad. Well, I don’t buy it. TJ Yates looked great last year, but he was throwing to Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate. This year, the cupboard’s bare, Butchie. Have fun trying to break runs with Yates when you’ve got no downfield threats. I predict they will be well out of the running by Week 5. Prognosis: #23. And that’s being generous, I think.

#20 Nebraska

The Huskers are a program with a long and storied history. However, unlike Florida St., I think that they actually merit this ranking, as they had a big resurgence last year under former LSU Defensive Coordinator Bo Pelini. I’m not sure they’re quite back to a point at which thy can really contend with the big boys of the Big 12, but a couple more years of Pelini recruiting will go a long way. It’s worth noting that three of their four losses last year came at the hands of teams that ended the year in the Top 10 and the other was VTech, a legitimate contender in their own right. Prognosis: #19, see below. Also a good bet to get better.

#19 Iowa

Kirk Ferentz evidently has the best job security of any coach in the BCS. The man continues to make azzloads of dough despite quite a few years of mediocrity. Sure, Shonn Greene was a huge producer last year as a workhorse and he carried them to a 9-4 season, but he’s gone now. I don’t know what happened to the Hawkeyes, but any time I’ve watched them over the last several years, I’ve felt severely underwhelmed. This is another reputation pick for ESPN, which is really one of the reasons I felt compelled to write this critique in the first place. I’m of the opinion that the pedigree of a school is largely unimportant when it comes to actual year-to-year performance, except in the realm of recruiting. And yes, I realize that this is rich coming from a Notre Dame fan. Prognosis: I’m flipping them with Nebraska and putting them at #20, for the sheer fact that I think Nebraska has much more upside.

#18 TCU

Finally some more love for the Mountain West, though I personally would have probably flipped them with Utah instead. TCU is another quietly strong program, led by a monstrous defense. These guys are the real fucking deal. Second in the nation in sacks and they gave up 612 rushing yards. Yup. 612, all season. You’ve got to be fucking kidding me. Prognosis: #18, but with the understanding that they could definitely rise.

#17 Notre Dame

I was both surprised and delighted to see Notre Dame ranked here. You all know I’m a huge homer, but I will admit that this is a little bit of an optimistic ranking, at least based on performance in other Weis-era seasons. I will say, however, that I was very pleased with their raking of Hawaii in their bowl game last year. They have a lot of talent in their passing game, but the question is whether or not the Unfrozen Caveman Quarterback will have enough time to get off throws to his excellent receiving corps of Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. The run game will suck, as I really doubt Weis has put that much effort into it. The line is a big ol question mark, as is the defense, which has been simply atrocious, even going back to the (somewhat) successful Quinn teams. Uberfreshman Manti Teo may help their linebacking corps to toughen up, but who knows? They’re overrated here, but that doesn’t mean I’m not happy about it. Prognosis: #21. They were 7-6 last year. Even I can’t overlook that.

#16 Georgia

What’s that? Georgia is ranked behind Georgia Tech? Well, that’s what happens when your QB from last year gets picked #1 in the Draft (and you weren’t even that good last year). That said, Mark Richt has been remarkably consistent in putting up a great record during his tenure. Do I think Dr. Cox & Co. are going to stop getting mercilessly kicked in the stones by Florida and Alabama? Nope. The only respite I can give them is that there’s less of a target on their back with Lane Kiffin’s Tennessee replacing UGA as the team Florida wants to beat the everloving shit out of. Tebow wouldn’t use that language though, I suppose. Prognosis: #15, right on the heels of their in-state rivals.

#15 Georgia Institute of Technology

You would think that my penchant to verbally fellate offenses like Mike Leach’s Air Raid would lead me to hate watching offenses like Paul Johnson’s particular brand of the triple-option. You would be wrong, however. I absolutely love seeing Jonathan Dwyer break off huge runs and just truck-stick people. Cha man is big, fast and agile. Tech’s run-blocking and team speed make them a lot of fun to watch, but more importantly, such an effective run-O makes for a great defense, generally giving them a lock on Time of Possession. Prognosis: I’m putting em at 14, though I wanted to put them even higher. We’ll see if other teams figure out the triple option this year, or when they do, if it will even matter.