Now I know I have not done a single one of my 32 for 32 posts yet. It’s bad. There’s no excuse for it, but I’ve been busy with work...and I was in Australia... And plus I’m not excited about football right now. At all. So deal with it.
This post is about summertime. We’re hitting that time of the year, at least in Portland, where we get glimpses of good weather. Maybe it’s a few 60 degree days in a row, maybe it’s a lone 70 degree-er. Regardless, one of the common phrases around these parts is “Man, I can’t wait for summer to get here.” Well, you can count me as a member of that bandwagon. Hot weather, barbeques, swimming, lemonade, beaches, camping, LeBron James…?
The upcoming NBA offseason has been covered (just a bit), but I want to throw my two cents in. There was Gene Wojciechowski who mulled over the idea of LeBron, Bosh, and Wade settin’ up shop together . There’s every Knick fan who is praying for LeBron to New York. There’s Rick Reilly who thinks…about…nothing important. Anyway, it’s my turn:
What I think will happen:
Dwyane Wade to the Miami Heat. He’s staying. Miami wants him back. He doesn’t ACTUALLY want to leave. Sometimes he hints at the possibility of leaving if he doesn’t get help, but he’ll stay. The Heat will bring in another star to help him. Someone like…
Amare Stoudemire to the Miami Heat. There were some whispers about Amare to the Heat at the deadline, but it didn’t happen. This summer could be another story. For such a dominant post player, Amare has never seemed to want to be “the man.” Well Miami already has “the man,” so he can just quietly dunk his way through South Beach.
LeBron James to the…Cleveland Cavaliers. The one is getting weaker for me. A few weeks ago, I would’ve definitely said the Cavs, but now I’m not so sure. He was at Madison Square Garden for the Jay-Z concert on Tuesday , luckily made possible by the fact the Cavs were off at New Jersey. Would’ve been easier if he were just a Knick, right? Somehow, I still see him staying. The Cavs have a solid team (I’m still not a huge fan of their pieces), he’s at home, etc…
Chris Bosh to the New York Knicks. Bosh is done in Toronto. He wants to be relevant. New York is certainly somewhere to be relevant. They’ll max him out and he’ll go, as long as he talks to some of his free agent friends and gets somebody else to come with him so that they can win some games here and there.
Joe Johnson to the New York Knicks. Hard to believe it, but there’d be some Knick fans that would call the 2010 offseason a disappointment if the Knicks “only” ended up with Bosh and Johnson. Johnson and Bosh would be a very solid duo and could make some noise with some decent Knick pieces around them.
Carlos Boozer to the Chicago Bulls. Utah has a lot of money tied up in Paul Millsap already, so paying another power forward isn’t a great option. Boozer likes the Bulls and they’ve got some money. If they can’t get another top tier free agent, I don't think they'd mind settling for Boozer.
What I want to happen:
LeBron James to the New Jersey Nets. Let’s say the Nets win the lottery. They take John Wall. That’s two really nice pieces in Wall and Brook Lopez (plus whoever they get when they trade Devin Harris). They add LeBron to that, who gets to kick it with Hova all da time and (eventually) play in Brooklyn? Too easy, mate! I love the Nets for LeBron.
Chris Bosh to the Portland Trailblazers. Nearly impossibly unlikely. It would have to be a sign and trade since the Blazers won’t have cap room, meaning they’ll really have to woo Bosh and then work it out with the Raptors. Toronto would be interested, especially with the fear of Bosh just walking and getting nothing in return. A nice package of LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Fernandez may be pretty enticing to them. Aldridge is talented but overpaid while Fernandez is a good value and an exciting fan favorite. They could do worse. Would Bosh be interested? Eh. But that’s why this is under “what I want to happen.”
"Uhh, yeah... LaMarcus? I'm just gonna scoot over here so your, um, "soft" doesn't rub off on me. We cool, right? Oh, and Greg? Well, you know."
Amare and Wade to the Heat. This is where what I think will happen and what I want to happen align nicely. What a fun duo this would be to watch. Bienvenido a Miami!
What about Joe Johnson? No real preference, as long as he's still doing things like this. All in all, I'm excited for new faces to be in new places. And for John Wall. Get some baby.
Finally, to leave you with this. You know I love me some NBA on TNT. Well with the Oscars coming up, they wanted to make sure Chuck got some recognition for his leading roles. Who wins?
ESPN needs to come out with some kind of free agent machine so I can see who the Knicks could keep if they get Bosh and Johnson. If you straight up added them to the team now that's an upper enchelon squad...but of course that's impossible.
ReplyDeleteI'm actually worried that Johnson might also stay. Truehoop is chock full of stories about how great the chemistry of that team is. The Hawks are like the Nuggets of the Eastern Conference: subservient to teams with Alpha Dogs (Lakers, Cavs/Magic/Wherever Lebron goes) but full of talent and a dangerous squad to face in the Tournament.
Nice to see you admit that LA is overpaid. I forget if you conceded that he was overpaid when the contract was signed, but I'm positive you were offended when Simmons slammed the deal.
As for the Lebron to the Nets scenario...that does sound cool. It would be cool if the Nets won the lottery just to have Wall in the ny metro area, but I feel like that's a too good to be true situation and it would go awry somehow.
My main argument against Simmons was that it didn't really matter what LaMarcus got paid because with his contract, Roy's max deal kicking in, and having to sign some of the young guys to extensions (Oden? Henh?), the Blazers are going to be well over the cap anyway. Paul Allen doesn't mind having to pay luxury tax. The Blazers could've signed LaMarcus for $10 mil less and still be pushing the cap in 2010-11, so purely from a team personnel standpoint, an overpaid player doesn't really affect the team at all. Of course, that's assuming they want him long term...an overpaid player is harder to trade, obviously, if they go that route.
ReplyDeleteThe Knicks are about 1.7 mil short in cap room to sign two max players. They guys they really care about will still be there (Danilo, Chandler, Eddy Curry and his expiring deal for the trade deadline 2011), so yeah, they probably wouldn't bring back David Lee if they brought in Bosh and Johnson, but their core would still be solid. I like Hoopshype for tracking team salaries: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_york.htm.
I could definitely see Johnson staying in the ATL, too. That team has some fun.
Man those Barkely pics just busted me up.
ReplyDeleteI like your assessment of what I'd call tier 1 free agents (guys who could command max money). Oddly enough that list is Wade, Bosh, Bron, and Amare who are all ETO (early termination) guys. This makes sense because they believe the final year of their contract undervalues them. Dirk also falls in this category but it looks like the Mavs will just extend him and he'll never touch free agency.
The crazy thing is that the Tier 1 guys created an overflow market that is going to allow Tier 1.5/2 guys to command a lot more money than they normally would. This includes Boozer, Rudy Gay, David Lee and Joe Johnson. Johnson already turned down a 4 yr/$60mil extension last fall from the Hawks so I can't imagine him getting an offer any bigger than that from ATL. Teams like the Clippers and Nets might be left fishing in this pool of enchantment.
Cont'd....
ReplyDeleteAnother interesting question is what do the Knicks do if one of the Tier 1 guys is out of the question? Do they root around for Tier 2 and 3 guys like those mentioned above and Ray Allen, T-mac, Manu and Shaq? Do they sign guys to 1 year deals and try again in the summer of 2011? It seems like the impending lock out is putting a ton of pressure on them to do the damn thing ASAP.
The final point I want to make is something that Simmons already mentioned and that's the x-factor contract of Mr. Erick(a) Dampier. His final year at about 13 million isn't guaranteed and he is in essence an expiring deal. At the MIT conference Mark Cuban was quoted as saying, "The best free agents will always seek out the best management." It smelled of a mischievous sign and trade that could make the Mavericks the 2011 early season favorites for the ship.
I'll go on record with my cursory knowledge of the NBA and say that based purely off the MIT conference, LeBron to Dallas. Dream didn't say it.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the NBA needs to pounce on what is a golden opportunity to attract fans by at the very least keeping any potential lockout short and sweet. NFL is gonna go tits up for a while (purely my thoughts) after the conclusion of this season and the NBA is in the best position to take advantage. Nobody wants to start following hockey. Nobody.